Playoff goalie analysis: Everything you need to know about all 8 series (2024)

The Stanley Cup playoffs have arrived, which means it’s time for goaltending to take center stage.

Every year, teams outperform expectations thanks to terrific play in net, while others fall flat when they don’t get saves. Predicting which way it will go is tough, but there are indicators we can use to help.

Rather than looking at each team’s offense and goaltending as a whole, we’ve looked through a more narrow lens, using the NHL’s player and puck-tracking data. How do the playoff teams score their goals? What areas of the ice are they scoring from? Why are they effective from those areas, and how does the opposing goalie in each series perform against those specific types of shots?

We’ve broken down the goaltending for all eight first-round series, looking closely at how each netminder matches up against the specific offensive attack he’ll face.

New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals

Stat of the series: Igor Shesterkin led the NHL in goals saved above expected (16.7) and shutouts (4) after the All-Star break.

After a bit of a rocky start to the season, Shesterkin returned to his usual, elite self over the second half, and that makes the Rangers as scary as any team in the playoffs. He wasn’t over-taxed during the regular season, thanks to Jonathan Quick’s resurgence, and with a 25-save shutout in the finale, Shesterkin is playing his best hockey at the right time.

Washington doesn’t pose many threats outside of Alex Ovechkin’s blistering shot. The Capitals are the worst offensive team in the playoffs, ranking 28th in the NHL with only 2.63 goals per game. If there’s a bright spot, it’s their long-range shooting, in which they rank 14th in goals (17) and eighth in shooting percentage (3.6). Defenseman John Carlson has a cannon of a shot from the blue line, ranking in the top 4 percent of all NHL players in shots (85) and goals (4) from more than 43 feet from the net.

The good news for the Rangers is that Shesterkin is excellent on these shots. His .981 save percentage on long-range shots is well above the league average. He likes playing further out of his net than most goalies, and that depth gives shooters almost no net to shoot at. Combine that with Shesterkin’s great hands and puck-tracking, and he’s incredibly difficult to beat from distance, where he’s allowed only six goals all season.

The biggest key to Shesterkin’s aggressive style is his incredible lateral quickness, which allows him to play with more depth than most while maintaining the ability to explode across the crease in the event of a pass.

In three starts versus the Capitals this season, Shesterkin was 2-1-0 with a .926 save percentage. Over his career, he’s 8-4-0 with a .916 save percentage.

Big question: Can Charlie Lindgren keep the magic going?

It might surprise you to know that Shesterkin doesn’t even have the most goals saved above expected of every goalie in this series. Lindgren’s 18.58 GSAx ranked ninth in the NHL this season. It’s been a special year for the 30-year-old, who had never started more than 26 games in a season prior to 2023-24, but he took over the starting job and led the Capitals to the postseason.

Now, he’ll be tasked with solving the puzzle that is the Rangers’ high-powered offense. What stands out about New York’s attack is how effective it was on mid-range shots, between 29 to 43 feet from the net. While the Rangers ranked in the bottom half of the league in both shots and goals from high-danger areas, they were exceptional from just outside of that.

With snipers such as Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad it’s no surprise the Rangers score from a little farther out than most. Panarin alone scored an incredible 20 goals this season from mid-range.

Lindgren finished above the league average in save percentage from all three shooting ranges, but was strongest on mid-range shots, where his .908 save percentage ranked inside the top 23 percent league-wide. Even more interesting, Lindgren was particularly good on shots coming from his blocker side (.960 save percentage), which is the side from which New York scored more of its goals.

The Capitals appear outmatched in this series, but there are reasons to believe Lindgren is suited to play well against the Rangers and perhaps keep Washington in it.

Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Stat of the series: Sergei Bobrovsky’s .809 save percentage on high-danger shots.

What a goaltending matchup we are treated to in the battle for Florida. Sergei Bobrovsky and Andrei Vasilevskiy have three Vezina Trophies between them, and with how dominant they’ve both been over their careers, that number should probably be even higher.

Bobrovsky rolled his momentum from last year’s spectacular postseason run right into this season, putting up his best statistics since 2017-18. The 35-year-old finished third with 36 wins, and looked much calmer in the crease than he did the first few years in Florida. His .922 save percentage since the All-Star break ranked second behind only Carolina’s Frederik Andersen.

The biggest question mark, especially in this series, is his effectiveness on shots from right in front of the net. Bobrovsky’s high-danger save percentage has dropped for three straight seasons, which is a concern considering Tampa Bay’s efficiency on those shots. The Lightning ranked near the middle of the pack with 660 shots from that range this season, but their 23-percent shooting led the league.

Bobrovsky has the physical tools to make those saves. There’s no question about that. His reaction time is among the best ever, and even in his mid 30s he’s still quicker than most. But the fact that his weakest area this season happens to be Tampa Bay’s biggest strength is less than ideal for the Panthers. It will be quite the first-round test, and should be exciting to see if Bobrovsky rises to it.

Bobrovsky was 2-1-0 against the Lightning this season, with a .892 save percentage, and 13-12-3 over his career with a .891 save percentage. It’s also worth noting that backup Anthony Stolarz has been great this season, and certainly is an option the Panthers will consider if things don’t go Bobrovsky’s way.

Big question: Is Vasilevskiy back?

Vasilevskiy missed the first month of the season while recovering from offseason back surgery, and the rust was evident upon his return. The two-time Cup champ didn’t look himself right away, with a .894 save percentage and -6.11 GSAx over his first 38 starts.

Then, in mid-March, the Big Cat suddenly looked like the perennial Vezina candidate that he’s been most of his career. He went 9-4-1 down the stretch, with 4.87 GSAx, including his best performance of the season, which just happened to be against the Panthers. Vasilevskiy stopped 47 shots in a 5-3 win over Florida on March 16.

He’s been excellent against the Panthers over his career, especially in the postseason, where he’s 8-2 with a sky-high .950 save percentage with two shutouts. He will need to be that again this season, as Florida has clearly been the stronger overall team.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Islanders

Stat of the series: Frederik Andersen’s league-leading .951 save percentage since returning in early March.

Andersen’s play since returning from a blood clot issue that kept him out for four months has been nothing short of sensational. He leads the league in every major statistic over that span, and has lost only once in 10 starts. He has typically elevated his game in the postseason, with a save percentage north of .920 in three straight playoffs, and now enters with very little wear.

The Islanders don’t have a particularly potent offense, ranking 22nd with 2.99 goals per game, but they do get to the net front better than most. New York ranked ninth with 687 shots from inside 29 feet. The problem was, their efficiency on those shots was poor. The Islanders’ 17.8 percent shooting on high-danger shots was sixth-worst in the NHL.

That doesn’t bode well for this series, considering Andersen had the highest save percentage on high-danger shots of any goalie in the NHL (.870). One of his biggest strengths has always been his patience in the crease, constantly waiting shooters out until they make the first move, then calmly sliding into position. It also doesn’t hurt your save percentage from in tight when you can pull off circus stops like this one on St. Louis’ Zach Dean this month.

Andersen hasn’t played against the Islanders this season. In his lone playoff game against them last year, he stopped 33 of 34 shots in a 2-1 win. He could be spelled by Pyotr Kochetkov, or even rotate every other game with him. Kochetkov was very strong in the second half of the season, and despite technically being a rookie, he has played in five playoff games.

Big question: How will Ilya Sorokin or Semyon Varlamov handle Carolina’s unique attack?

Carolina scored the eighth-most goals per game this season (3.38) but did it differently than most other highly-ranked offenses. The Hurricanes were outside the top 10 in shots and goals from high-danger areas, but shot and scored more than any other team from the point. They employ a quantity-over-quality approach, attempting nearly 200 more shots than the next-closest team.

Brent Burns led all defensem*n with 417 shot attempts at even strength, and fellow blueliner Brady Skjei finished sixth with 368 attempts. The Hurricanes will let it fly from long range early and often in this series, and neither of the Islanders’ netminders did particularly well against that form of attack.

Sorokin and Varlamov both finished in the bottom half of goalies in long-range save percentage. It was obviously a down season for Sorokin after finishing as the Vezina runner-up a year ago, but even in stronger overall seasons, stopping shots from distance has never been a big strength.

Varlamov’s history against point shots is better. In 2021-22, he stopped .981 percent of them to rank in the top 12 percent league-wide, and last year, he was inside the top five percent at .987. It’s still not clear how coach Patrick Roy will deploy the two, but perhaps Varlamov’s advantage on these shots will sway him in his direction.

Sorokin is 5-9-1 in his career against the Hurricanes with a .914 save percentage (including regular season and the playoffs), while Varlamov is 6-4-4 with a .923 save percentage.

Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Stat of the series: The Bruins are the only team with two goalies inside the top 10 in GSAx.

Whether Boston coach Jim Montgomery decides to go with Linus Ullmark, Jeremy Swayman, or both, he will have a significant goalie advantage in his first-round matchup with Toronto. The Bruins’ tandem has alternated starts all season, and it’s worked to the tune of 44.41 GSAx.

They will be tested against one of the best offenses in the league. The Maple Leafs generated the second-most high-danger shots (784) and scored the second-most goals per game (3.63). Auston Matthews scored three of his 69 goals this season in four games against Boston.

Toronto is excellent at generating chances from in close, but the Bruins’ netminders were equally good at stopping shots from that area. Ullmark’s .822 save percentage on high-danger shots is in the top 25 percent of the NHL. His ability to dig his edges into the ice and change directions on a dime is impressive, and it helps him make a lot of saves he probably shouldn’t.

In his lone game against Toronto this season, Ullmark stopped 37 of 40 shots in an overtime win, but in his career, he’s 4-5-1 against the Maple Leafs with a subpar .896 save percentage. Swayman, on the other hand, is 4-2-0 in six starts with a .917 save percentage.

Big question: Will Toronto play Ilya Samsonov, Joseph Woll, or both?

After being waived in January, Samsonov eventually worked his way back into the crease and started 24 of the last 37 games for the Maple Leafs. He went 18-4-2 over that stretch, stopping 7.74 GSAx. It was a major improvement from his -13.49 GSAx prior to that, which ranked last out of 84 goalies.

Woll, a rookie, started the season hot. He took over the starting job in November, and it felt like he might keep it for good, but suffered a high-ankle sprain in early December and started only 19 of the last 59 games.

It seems that Samsonov is most likely to be in net, at least to start. He ranks in the bottom half of the league in save percentage from every area (high-danger, medium and long-range). He played much better over the second half of the season, but the inconsistencies in the basic structure of his game make it tough to believe he can string together the type of performances needed for a deep run. Perhaps the elite team in front of him can help, but it’s an uphill battle.

Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights

Stat of the series: Jake Oettinger’s 9.23 GSAx in his final 11 starts.

For the first three quarters of this season, Oettinger was not good enough. The 25-year-old had maintained an upward trajectory over his first three seasons in the NHL, but after a disappointing end to the 2023 playoffs — when he struggled in the conference-finals loss to Vegas — Oettinger hit his first real rut. In mid-March, his save percentage had dipped to .896, despite playing behind an elite team.

Then, Oettinger found his game. Over the final 11 starts, he lost only once, saved 9.23 GSAx with an impressive .941 save percentage. His reads suddenly looked faster, allowing his exceptional technique to flourish. Oettinger has always been a very technical goalie. He’s a good athlete, but he needs to be ahead of the play in order to be at his best, which is what we saw over the last month.

The confidence that stretch built up will be important, now that he’s facing a team he’s struggled against over his career. Oettinger went 0-1-2 against Vegas this season with a .885 save percentage, and is 6-5-2 over his career, including the regular season and playoffs.

Big question: How will Logan Thompson fare in his first postseason action?

Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy has rotated Thompson and Adin Hill fairly evenly this season, but with the way each goalie finished the season, it should be Thompson’s net in the playoffs – at least to begin.

Their overall season numbers are almost identical.

However, Thompson finished the season strong, with a .926 save percentage over his last 11 games, while Hill dealt with multiple injuries and lost 11 of his last 16 starts. It sets up an interesting matchup in Thompson’s first-ever playoff action.

Dallas is elite offensively in nearly every area. The Stars scored the third-most goals from high-danger areas, the second-most from mid-range and have an excellent high-tip offense with Joe Pavelski.

Thompson excels on the most difficult of saves. He has incredibly quick feet to get across when needed, and excellent reaction and improvisational skills when the play breaks down.

Where Thompson can struggle is on shots from the outside through traffic. The structure to his game isn’t always the cleanest, and it can leave holes for pucks to squeak through. Look for the Stars to fire plenty of shots from the point while their big forwards fight for space in front of the net. It’s something Pete DeBoer’s teams have always done, and Thompson will see plenty of it.

Thompson is 1-1-1 against Dallas in his career, with a .929 save percentage.

Vancouver Canucks vs. Nashville Predators

Stat of the series: Thatcher Demko’s .845 save percentage on high-danger shots.

Nashville was surprisingly effective offensively this season, especially in front of the net. The Predators scored the eighth-most goals from inside of 29 feet (141). The problem is, they’re now facing maybe the best goalie on the planet at stopping shots from in tight.

Demko’s .845 save percentage on high-danger shots is second to only Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom. He is one of the most technically sound goalies in the world, with buttery smooth transitions from his skates to the butterfly and into his posts. The efficiency of his movement maximizes his 6-foot-4 frame and opens up very few holes.

Predators leading scorer Filip Forsberg is as crafty as they come, but he’ll have his hands full trying to get enough pucks past Demko to pull off the upset in this series. Demko was very good in his two starts against Nashville this season, winning both with a .915 save percentage.

Big question: Does Juuse Saros have another gear?

It hasn’t been Saros’ best season statistically. In fact, it’s actually been his worst in three years as a full-time starter. After a sensational 2022-23, in which he stopped 45.49 GSAx, Saros crashed back to earth with a pedestrian 7.51 this year. Having said that, he’s talented enough to single-handedly steal a series if he finds his groove.

Saros’ biggest weak spot this season has been his effectiveness on long-range shots. It makes sense, considering those chances are usually through traffic and a screened goalie’s best action is making himself as big as possible. As the shortest goalie in the NHL, Saros is at a disadvantage, and it’s shown in his numbers. His .959 save percentage on long-range shots is the worst of any projected playoff starter.

Vancouver has been effective at scoring from distance, too. The Canucks’ 23 goals from the point are the fourth-most in the NHL, and their shooting percentage of 4.7 on those shots is the third-highest. Brock Boeser and J.T. Miller will be doing their best to crowd Saros in the crease and prevent him from finding another gear, if he has one.

Winnipeg Jets vs. Colorado Avalanche

Stat of the series: Connor Hellebuyck’s league-leading 412 saves from long range.

It’s been a brilliant season for the NHL’s best netminder. Hellebuyck should run away with the Vezina vote after leading the league in every metric imaginable. If we’re going to see a generational type of performance for a goalie who carries his team to the Cup this season, the odds-on favorite to do it is Hellebuyck.

There really isn’t a weakness in his game, but it’s worth noting that he’s particularly good at stopping the types of shots Colorado has thrived on. The Avalanche led the league with 29 goals from long range this season, four goals clear of every other team. It’s not surprising, considering the offensive talent on the Avs’ blue line. Cale Makar was second among defenseman with 21 goals, Devon Toews scored 12 and Josh Manson pitched in eight more.

On the other side, Hellebuyck has faced more shots from distance than any goalie in the league (417). That’s a testament to the Winnipeg defense funneling shots to the outside. Of the 417 shots Hellebuyck has faced from the point, only five made it past him. That .988 save percentage is second in the league, and first among goalies with at least 40 games.

Hellebuyck thinks the game well, always staying ahead of the play with excellent reads. The calmness and smoothness with which he plays play a major factor in how well he tracks pucks through traffic. His head stays remarkably still throughout his save sequences, and the result is a goalie that not only makes the saves, but controls the rebounds with consistency.

Colorado doesn’t just score from long range. The Avs scored the third-most goals from mid-range and the seventh-most from in close, so they will test Hellebuyck from everywhere. He has fared well in the past, going 13-7-4 with a .912 save percentage in 24 career starts against Colorado.

Big question: Can Alexandar Georgiev win a Cup?

The Avalanche have proven they don’t need elite goaltending to win it all. They hoisted the Cup two years ago despite Darcy Kuemper and Pavel Francouz combining for a mediocre .903 save percentage during the playoffs. They rode an offense that scored 312 goals that season.

This year, the offense is just as good. Colorado scored the second-most goals this season behind only Edmonton, and likely needs serviceable goaltending to go on another deep run. Georgiev led the NHL with 38 wins, but did it while stopping only .897 percent of the shots he faced.

Georgiev lost both starts against Winnipeg this season, allowing seven goals on only 42 shots (.833 save percentage). He doesn’t need to outduel Hellebuyck. He just needs to give Colorado timely saves, and allow the high-powered offense to go to work.

Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings

Stat of the series: Stuart Skinner’s .981 save percentage on long-range shots.

The Kings don’t score a lot of goals. They rank in the bottom half of the league in most offensive metrics, but made it this far by allowing the third-fewest goals in the NHL. The offense Los Angeles does generate usually comes from the point, where they took the second-most shots of any team (620).

Matt Roy and Vladislav Gavrikov both rank inside the top seven percent of defensem*n in terms of shots from long range. Even the Kings’ forwards let it rip from distance. Adrian Kempe and Trevor Moore are both in the top 25 percent of forwards in long-distance shots.

Stopping shots from the outside is a strength for Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner. He’s stopped well above the league average from that distance in both of his NHL seasons. He’s a big, patient, positionally sound goalie, all of which help make saves through traffic. If he does it well in this series, it could spell trouble for the Kings.

Big question: Can Cam Talbot be the hero?

When the defensive structure around Talbot is good, he’s an excellent goalie. We’ve seen it throughout his lengthy NHL career, including early in this season when he was putting up Vezina-quality numbers for a good stretch. But against an offense as dangerous as Edmonton’s, there are going to be breakdowns, and probably a lot of them.

The Oilers didn’t just lead the NHL with 832 high-danger shots this season — they had nearly 50 more than the next-closest team. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are special at creating offense and getting the puck into the most dangerous of areas. Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evander Kane know how to get to those areas and finish plays. Talbot will make the saves he’s supposed to make. The question is, can he make enough of the ones he’s not supposed to make to win this series?

Even at age 36, Talbot has plenty of athleticism to make the acrobatic saves. Just ask Ottawa forward Tim Stützle, who got robbed of a surefire goal a few weeks ago.

Talbot has been good this season on high-danger shots. His .810 save percentage from that range ranks in the top 30 percent league-wide. He’s also been very good against the Oilers in his career, with his second-highest save percentage (.937) against any opponent.

There’s still reason for concern, outside of the fact that the Oilers have beaten Los Angeles in the first round for two straight years. Edmonton is one of the best passing teams in the league, and that’s how you beat a goalie as aggressive as Talbot. The veteran loves playing with his skates at the top of his crease, and sometimes even further out. It cuts off angles and makes him very tough to beat with a shot, but he is vulnerable to passes to the back side of the play. The Kings’ ability to limit those passes could decide this series.

(Data via Evolving Hockey and NHL Edge)

(Photo of Sergei Bobrovsky and Andrei Vasilevskiy from the 2022 playoffs: Mark LoMoglio / NHLI via Getty Images)