By Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille and Shayna Goldman
Season-ending hype might have surrounded the Eastern Conference playoff race, but don’t forget about the battle of the Central Division. The Stars, Jets, and Avalanche spent 2023-34 jostling for position to avoid exactly this: A showdown against a division rival in Round 1.
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Two teams, led by their own Hart-caliber players, will try to push their teams further than last year and on deep runs into the spring. It’s Nathan MacKinnon and the Avalanche against Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets.
Recency bias may tell you that this won’t be a close series after Winnipeg demolished Colorado 7-0 just days ago. But this is shaping up to be a tight competition between two high-end teams.
The odds
The Avalanche are the stronger offensive team. The Jets are the stronger defensive team. The end result: Opponents that grade out as nearly identical, giving us the closest matchup of the opening round.
This series is exactly why it was so important to win the Central — something both teams let slip through their hands during the season. It’s too close to call, which means one elite team will be sent home early — something both teams experienced in 2023.
Some people may ask why the Avalanche aren’t larger favorites, and a lack of home ice is part of the equation. But that question also does a disservice to how strong Winnipeg has been most of the season. It may also give too much credit to a team that began to show some cracks.
The numbers
Despite last week’s result, the Avalanche have the offensive edge with a plus-41 rating. At five-on-five, they’re still elite off the rush. A lot of that starts with their up-tempo, mobile blue line. But their offensive approach isn’t one-dimensional, with a high rate of shots off the cycle and a forecheck to balance them out. That’s something the team only improved on at the deadline, with bottom-six additions who can grind opponents down and maintain possession.
All together, that translates to an offensive attack that is among the best in the league in shot volume. Colorado’s expected goal generation is just outside of the top 10, behind Winnipeg. The difference is how often they convert. There is a ton of finishing talent on the Avalanche that helps them score almost three goals per 60 minutes of play, which is good for second in the league. That, combined with a loaded power play, gives Colorado the advantage.
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The Jets are a fine team offensively, but their strength stems from play back in their own zone.
The Jets are stingy and don’t allow opponents to pepper their goalies with a ton of shots. Their zone-entry defense is a key part of that; Winnipeg thrives at limiting chances in transition, which should help them counter the Avalanche’s rush. Similar to the offensive matchup between these two, the Jets and Avalanche are pretty even in expected goals against at five-on-five. The difference comes back in goal. Connor Hellebuyck is Winnipeg’s backbone at even strength and while short-handed.
The big question
Did the Avalanche add enough depth to prevail against the Jets?
It’s hard to pinpoint when the Avs’ forward depth revealed itself as a potentially fatal flaw, rather than a temporary nuisance. Maybe it was at the start of the season. Maybe it was the 10-game stretch around the holidays when Nathan MacKinnon averaged more than 25 minutes a game. Maybe it was when Ryan Johansen and Ross Colton — the Avs’ best 2C options, in theory — combined for 10 points in February. Like, all of it. While healthy. It was a leap year, too.
Either way, it was clear that the offseason middle-six reset, fueled mainly by trade acquisitions and reclamation projects, hadn’t quite taken root. Johansen had been particularly bad, going from “worth a flier” to “not worth his half-off cap hit” in record time. He put up 1.61 points per 60 with Colorado. That’s less than Teddy Blueger. If you fancy yourself a true contender, your second-line center probably shouldn’t produce points on par with a player who’s become shorthand for the concept of a defense-only fourth-liner.
Now, thanks in part to an audacious deadline deal for Casey Mittelstadt and some improved play from Jonathan Drouin, the Avs have a group of second- and third-line-caliber forwards that might not be among the league’s best, top to bottom, but is certainly closer to playoff-worthy.
That starts with Mittelstadt, a short- and long-term play behind MacKinnon. He’d emerged as a solid playmaker in his last year-plus with the Sabres, particularly in 2022-23, finishing sixth in the league in five-on-five primary assists per 60 (1.21). His numbers dipped a bit at the start of the season with Buffalo, and that’s continued in his first 17 games with Colorado (nine goals, five assists), but he still profiles as a fit thanks to his age, style of play and skill level. He’s also, simply, not Johansen, whose Net Rating was down to minus-3 at the time of his trade to Philadelphia. Mittelstadt’s presence also helps the rest of Colorado’s forwards fall into place; for example, Colton — a solid playoff performer with Tampa Bay — is a whole lot more playable as a third-liner. It’s not just about adding Mittelstadt. It’s about the down-the-lineup domino effect on a roster with as much top-end talent as anyone in the league.
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Drouin’s down-the-stretch play has been an even bigger coup for the Avs; in 19 games since March 1, he has 22 points (equal to Jack Eichel and David Pastrnak), with a five-on-five goal share of more than 65 percent and an expected goal share of 57. That sort of production is more than good enough for his spot in the lineup. The question, really, is whether it’ll continue. Is Drouin traditional “depth scoring?” Maybe not; he’s playing on a line with MacKinnon. Still, he’s providing offense at a clip that the Avs haven’t seen from players outside of the MacKinnon/Cale Makar/Mikko Rantanen/Valeri Nichushkin core. Against the Jets, production like that from Drouin — or someone else — will be a necessity, given Winnipeg’s defensive skill throughout its lineup.
The X-factor
Can Alexandar Georgiev close the goaltending gap?
The better question might be whether the Avs can close some of the goaltending gap for Georgiev — because he’s almost certainly not going to do it on his own. The fact that he’s looking down ice at Hellebuyck is the single biggest reason to believe the Jets can pull off a mini-upset.
Georgiev’s .897 save percentage is six percentage points below the league average, and he’s been nearly break-even in expected goals allowed (minus-0.21). Both represent a serious drop from his play in 2022-23 and the worst goaltending the Avs have gotten since they emerged as a top-tier contender; the prevailing sentiment might remain that Colorado doesn’t need elite play in net, but sub-mediocre isn’t going to cut it either, especially against Hellebuyck, who might be on his way to a unanimous Vezina Trophy win.
Put more plainly, Georgiev has allowed a goal that he shouldn’t have (or two, or three) in seven of his last 11 starts. If he keeps that up against the Jets, Colorado’s skaters are going to have to consistently pick up the slack against the best goalie in the league. Good luck with that. Georgiev doesn’t need to be great. He does, however, need to be better.
The rosters
For the Avalanche, everything comes down to the star talent — their most overwhelming advantage. Between MacKinnon, Rantanen, Makar and Devon Toews, Colorado has a foursome that very few teams can touch and the Jets aren’t close to being one of them. If the Avalanche win, you’ll know exactly why.
Some of that depends on which version of Makar the team gets for the playoffs. Makar has scored a lot of points this year and has looked as strong with the puck as usual, but his play without it hasn’t been up to his usual lofty standard. That shows up during the rare times he doesn’t share the ice with MacKinnon. Normally, Makar is a transcendent talent who can tilt the ice to a ludicrous degree. This year, thanks to playing through injury, he’s given a lot back.
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Even with MacKinnon, the duo hasn’t looked the same. Last year when together they outscored teams by a 39-22 margin. This year they’re at 56-42. Still great — just not as unstoppable as usual.
That can change, but it also depends on how Colorado configures its top six, namely whether or not the team splits up MacKinnon and Rantanen. The Avalanche love to put all their eggs in one basket, but the emergence of Drouin and the addition of Mittelstadt allows for a configuration that may work better against a Jets team whose main strength is its depth.
It would, at least, if Rantanen shows he’s able to drive his own line. This season he’s played 231 minutes away from MacKinnon and in that time has been outscored 16-8 while earning only 39 percent of the expected goals. Things look a little brighter with Mittelstadt, but the duo has also played just 43 minutes together without MacKinnon and still only managed a 50 percent expected goals rate.
If Makar looks dependent on MacKinnon, and if Rantanen also looks dependent on MacKinnon, it’s bad news for a Colorado team that may be forced to stack the deck. Last season the Avalanche were eliminated early because they were a one-line team against a deeper opponent. They added reinforcements to limit the chances of that happening again, including an offensively-minded second-pair defenseman in Sean Walker. They need players outside the core — like Drouin, Mittelstadt and Walker — to dominate their minutes against Winnipeg.
That’s because the bottom six, sparsely used as they are, still don’t stack up very well — specifically with their inability to create offense. Their collective Offensive Rating of minus-40 is 12 worse than the average playoff team.
All of this matters insofar as five-on-five play where the Jets are extremely hard to score on. That’s not just Hellebuyck either — this is a stingy group headlined by a bottom six with serious defensive chops and a defense corps that has some strong defensive stoppers.
That’s led by Winnipeg’s top pair who grade out as one of the league’s best and whose efforts will be crucial to thwarting Colorado’s attack. Josh Morrissey has been sensational, cementing himself in the league’s upper echelon of defensem*n. While the Jets may be short on forward star power, they do have it on the back end in Morrissey, a player capable of tilting the ice in a tough-minute role at both ends. Having the always-sturdy Dylan DeMelo by his side helps, too.
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On a similar note, Winnipeg’s most important forward in this series may just be captain Adam Lowry, a vintage shutdown center who has played his way onto Selke shortlists. Between him, Nino Niederreiter and Mason Appleton, the Jets have a retro checking line that takes on tough minutes and has earned 59 percent of the expected goals while only allowing 1.3 goals against per 60.
It’s telling that the Jets hard-matched Lowry and company against MacKinnon at home, while on the road the Avalanche went power vs. “power,” putting him against Mark Scheifele. There isn’t a matchup the Jets can reasonably win against MacKinnon over seven games, but Lowry’s crew allows them to slow him down (as best as anyone can). It also frees up the top-scoring line to do damage elsewhere. It’s why Colorado needs a dependable second line.
The big question for the Jets is whether they can depend on their own top line. There’s a configuration that works well (cough, Nikolaj Ehlers on the top line, cough) that Rick Bowness seems oddly reluctant to use. What’s left is a trio that simply has not worked very well together. Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi are good players, but they seem to be worse than the sum of their parts at the top of the lineup. In 182 minutes, they have just 37 percent of the expected goals together.
The problem may be that the Jets have found a second line that does work extremely well — so much so that it may not be worth splitting up. But the common denominator of what works for the first and second line isn’t hard to spot. That’s a major reason why the Jets aren’t favored in this series, a common thread that weaves its way throughout the lineup. It’s less about the cards they’ve been dealt and more about how they choose to play them.
The Jets are strong enough and deep enough to overcome some lineup inefficiencies, but at a certain point, those inefficiencies add up and nullify their biggest advantage. The Avalanche may have similar weak links in their lineup, but they don’t have stronger players waiting in the wings. Logan Stanley is a choice, one that lessens Winnipeg’s chances of winning the series. And it’s not the only choice the Jets are likely making in the wrong direction.
The key matchup
Nathan MacKinnon vs. Connor Hellebuyck
Who else could be the key matchup besides each team’s MVP?
On one side, there’s MacKinnon, who has been as dominant as ever. He has delivered the most value of any player in the league, with an impressive plus-32.5 Net Rating.
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MacKinnon forces his way up the ice and through defenders into the scoring areas with a level of speed, skill and strength that few can compete with. He is a dual threat between his dangerous shot and high-end passing, and the skill he tends to have around him makes opponents’ jobs even tougher.
When the pressure rises, MacKinnon tends to take over games. The Jets can do their best to contain that, but this series could come down to whether Hellebuyck can be the difference against him.
Hellebuyck continues to show why he is one of the best goalies in the world, if not the absolute best. No goalie is projected to be more important to his team and it’s not close either. Hellebuyck has put up sparkling numbers between his 0.922 save percentage and almost 41 goals saved above expected. The latter isn’t just a career high but the seventh-best mark in the analytics era. If that is the level he can bring to the playoffs, compared to last year’s subpar first round, the Jets have a legitimate chance to advance.
The bottom line
The Jets have the ingrained defensive ability and goaltender necessary to handle their business and the Avs still hew too closely to a one-line team to make this pick a no-brainer. Still, Colorado’s top-of-the-roster talent — especially when compared to Winnipeg’s — should ultimately shine through.
References
How these projections work
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Top photo of Nathan MacKinnon and Connor Hellebuyck: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
